Fewer layoffs means nothing without the reemployment rate

Jessie Grenfell
Jessie Grenfell

Why is no one talking about the reemployment rate? I keep being informed that layoffs in tech in 2025 were less than in 2024, and therefore anyone concerned has been hysterically misled. Paraphrasing of course, but that has been the gist.

Let's put aside that this is all based on the highly unscientific method of news reports of layoffs. Why is anyone making the assessment that everything is just fine without that corresponding key piece of data: what percentage of people laid off are able to find work? Let's say within 3 months, still longer than most people's safety nets. The current impact of layoffs can't possibly be gauged without understanding that. If we are in a recession, that reemployment rate is low, so even *if* there have been fewer layoffs this year, the effect on living, breathing humans is still worse. It feels like such gaslighting trying to get me to not think about that.

And we're all adults who understand that the administration isn't refusing to release the jobs data because the numbers are good, right? I see the anecdotal evidence in my heavily tech-industry feed here and real-life network: people are struggling to find work after layoffs and often settling for far lower salaries. And then these posts say, "Nope, don't believe your lying eyes, everything is hunky dory!"—backed by pseudo-science and a vacuum of missing data that the burden is on them to show.

I'm not buying it. Just like I've been skeptical of the claims of layoffs because "AI is basically human now!" There's always incentive to soothe the masses because our perception of the economy impacts the economy, and these stories feel like parents reassuring their children at bedtime that everything is just fine before they go back to figuring out which bill they can put off paying.

Jessie Grenfell

Jessie Grenfell

Jessie has spent 20+ years architecting and delivering software for organizations where complexity is the norm — financial services, insurance, nonprofits, and regulated industries where getting it wrong isn't an option. She specializes in the hard problems: unique operational workflows, cross-system integrations, and the kind of compliance requirements (HIPAA, CCPA, SOC 2) that most developers treat as someone else's job.

At Codality, she leads every principal engagement from discovery through delivery — because she's seen what happens when that thread gets cut.